With days to go before the presidential elections in Venezuela, the atmosphere is tense but relatively calm. These are far from normal elections. They are fraught with doubts and risks. Uncertainty is only increasing as the hours go by. The prevailing calm awaits the coming of a storm.
[The following is an edited and shortened version of a statement published by the Venezuelan section of the Revolutionary Communist International. The full version, published in Spanish on 20 July, can be read here.]
Currently, 10 presidential candidates are touring the country promising to build a heavenly paradise here on Earth. In reality, all of them represent the capitalists, who want to continue to make the workers pay for the crisis.
The real contest is between the candidate for re-election, Nicolás Maduro for the United Socialist Party of Venezuela (PSUV); and the candidate of the opposition, Edmundo González Urrutia for the Unitary Platform (PU), who has the backing of US imperialism and the extreme right-wing leader, the disqualified María Corina Machado.
When it comes to artificial hype and publicity splurges, Maduro stands out, having taken advantage of his control over the state. From a biographical film of Maduro, tours with well-known singers, etc. – no boast is too great for the government, which eagerly squanders resources belonging to all Venezuelans before our eyes.
The streets speak for themselves, however. The main right-wing candidate and, standing behind him, Machado, has been able to mobilise large numbers in every city and town they visit. This they have achieved at the expense of the ruling party, the same party that through austerity, corruption, and repression has surrendered a good part of its social base to the arms of reaction.
A right wing emboldened and foaming at the mouth
Machado's current sky-high popularity is the result of corruption and political disarray in the right-wing camp of Guaidó and the G4 alliance of opposition parties. The contrast has allowed her to transform her image from that of a crazed radical voice – who in 2019 called for foreign military intervention against her own country – to the most determined opposition figure confronting the government.
Machado's current sky-high popularity is the result of corruption and political disarray in the right-wing camp / Image: SantanaZ, Wikimedia Commons
Her strongest selling point, however, has been the immeasurable disasters brought about by the government itself. For a period, this has allowed her to win over a huge layer of former Chavistas and undecided voters desperate for change. Machado, like Trump, Milei, and Le Pen, among others, has come to the surface as a consequence of the global crisis of capitalism, which has resulted in the collapse of the political centre and reformism.
Machado’s government plan – to which González adheres – entitled “Venezuela, Land of Grace”, proposes a broad programme of privatisation of public companies and assets, especially the oil industry. It intends for Venezuela to regain its status as a “safe and reliable supplier” to US and European imperialism. It also proposes reaching an agreement with the IMF and a plan to restructure foreign debt in order to speed up the privatisation process and reduce the size of the state.
To carry out all these policies and counter-reforms, an eventual right-wing government would surely have to use the same anti-democratic and repressive weapons created or reinforced by Maduro to break any pockets of resistance to government cuts. Those who hope that the institutions will be once more democratised hand in hand with a change of government are clearly missing the point. It is clear in whose interests the pro-imperialist right would rule if they take power.
Maduro's campaign
Maduro is paying the political price of having played the role of destroyer of the gains and rights won by working people / Image: Nicolás Maduro, Twitter
If there’s one thing Maduro’s re-election campaign has shown so far, it has been the diminishing ability of the PSUV to call mobilisations in the streets. The governing party has shown weakness at events in cities and parishes that were once real strongholds of Chavismo. Maduro is paying the political price of having played the role of destroyer of the gains and rights won by working people.
The President of the Republic, with his characteristic alarmism, has warned that the right wing wants to return to power in order to impose a ‘neo-liberal package’. What cynicism! While making these assertions, the minimum wage remains frozen, the privatisation of the oil, agri-food and other industries is advancing, and the electricity system, water distribution, education and healthcare are being starved of investment as a result of brutal cuts in public spending.
Simultaneously, Maduro has overseen the strengthening of the repressive state apparatus and the suffocation of all instances of popular participation. He has distorted the image of socialism, and has squandered the immense political capital amassed by Hugo Chávez and the Bolivarian Revolution.
Venezuela today is a clear example of the political bankruptcy of reformism and so-called ‘progressive governments’. When they have to administer the crisis of capitalism, they do not hesitate for a second to apply the most severe austerity to the most impoverished sectors. In this way, they cannot avoid eroding their social support base, which is precisely what brought them to power previously.
The position of the Communist Party
Meanwhile, the Communist Party of Venezuela (PCV) has given its support to the candidate Enrique Marquez of the Centrados party. Former leader of the UNT opposition party, and former vice-president of the CNE (the National Electoral Council), Márquez has tried to present himself as a ‘depolarising’ centrist alternative who would promote a democratic and inclusive transition.
With moderate rhetoric, he seeks to rally support from right to left, including disgruntled Chavistas… at least those with a short memory. In the past, he has stated that he agrees with the signing of a pact between the Venezuelan state and the IMF in exchange for financing, which tells us all we need to know about the economic policy that this gentleman would implement were he to come to power.
To speak of Marquez is to speak of a politician organically incapable of breaking with capitalism. Under the whip of the crisis, all bourgeois governments – including those of the left reformists – will be forced to unload the crisis onto the shoulders of the workers. The only way out that does not involve sacrificing the majority to save the capitalist minority is socialist revolution, an option that characters like Marquez will never be willing to contemplate.
It is particularly regrettable that the PCV has decided to support Marquez. The party's Secretary General, Òscar Figuera, has argued that it represents an attempt by the communists to push “for a regroupment of genuinely democratic forces”. But some of us have not forgotten that when Márquez was leader of UNT, he actively participated in the reactionary attempts at insurrection during the right wing’s offensives of 2014 and 2017, which saw more than 100 killed and nearly 1,000 wounded. Behind the democratic mask he shows off today, is hidden his true coup-mongering face.
By jettisoning genuine communist principles, the PCV finds itself backing a manoeuvrer who is clearly in the service of the old bourgeoisie and imperialism. Such a policy is rooted in the Menshevik theory of stages and the Stalinist tactic of popular fronts, which everywhere leads to the subordination of the communist parties to the liberal bourgeoisies, and which has resulted in countless historic setbacks for the working class throughout the world.
Possible scenarios
With days to go before the elections, there are several scenarios for which the working people must be prepared.
On the one hand, on 28 July we could see a right-wing victory. We firmly believe that if this were to occur – permitted and recognised by the PSUV – we would witness the consummation of a pact between Maduro and US imperialism.
After the resounding failure of Trump’s policy of ‘maximum pressure’, the Democratic Administration has relaxed tensions with Venezuela, prioritising diplomatic negotiations and blackmailing Maduro with the offer of easing sanctions.
However imperialism's adoption of a more moderate strategy does not imply that it has changed its objective of bringing about a change of government in Venezuela. The US needs someone they can fully trust at the head of the country with the largest oil reserves in the world. And the Americans understand very well that Maduro is under pressure from China and Russia, powers that rival the US economically and geopolitically.
Their preferred candidate is María Corina Machado, who herself hopes to see Trump win the US presidential election so as to have a leader as unhinged as she is in Washington.
The preferred candidate of the US is María Corina Machado, who herself hopes to see Trump win the US presidential election / Image: public domain
For the top leadership of the PSUV, handing over power implies great risks. The leadership of the ruling party is under personal sanctions, is being prosecuted for crimes against humanity in the International Criminal Court (ICC), and is threatened with confiscation of its assets. These are strong reasons for Maduro to refuse any possibility of transition, unless imperialism offers guarantees of immunity and if his government is naïve enough to accept them.
Alternatively, Maduro could move to disqualify González from the race. The political and diplomatic cost of such a decision would be very high. Maduro’s regional allies, such as the governments of Colombia, Mexico and Brazil, would turn their backs on him; and the imposition of new financial sanctions from the US and Europe would not be long in coming. Moreover, the unleashed political instability would significantly reduce all expectations of economic growth. The prevailing atmosphere of tension could open up the possibility of a coup d'état, which the right wing and imperialism would bring about by negotiating with some sector of the military officers.
For a coup scenario to occur, however, several factors must combine. Maduro, in essence, heads a Bonapartist regime, whose mainstay has been the support of the armed forces. The president has been able to reward senior military officers very well, with stakes in the oil, mining and gas businesses. We believe that, ultimately, the officers of the armed forces will continue to support Maduro as long as he remains the main guarantor of such privileges.
But, in an atmosphere of great political and social upheaval aimed at overthrowing the government, we cannot rule out the possibility that the military officers might negotiate Maduro's departure in exchange for maintaining their own perks. Or, as has often been seen in history, a sector of the armed forces may intervene directly to ‘restore order’, in the event that neither of the two sides manages to prevail in the conflict.
Any possibility depends to a large extent on the response that María Corina Machado and the traditional right wing can muster. It is one thing to gather large crowds for an election rally. It is another entirely for masses in such numbers to embark on a campaign of mobilisations and clashes with the police. A good part of the shock troops of the petty bourgeoisie, who led the insurrectionary offensives of 2014 and 2017, have emigrated. The emigration of 8 million Venezuelans over the last decade (about 26 percent of the population), 50 percent of whom are young people, is no small thing. The strength of the pro-imperialist right in standing up to the government therefore remains untested.
In short, we are on the threshold of a decisive moment that will mark a ‘before and after’. There are many risks in the situation, which threaten to plunge us into chaos. Whether it is fraud, transition or violence, there is only one certainty for the working people: we will bear the greatest costs, the greatest losses, the casualties, defeats and suffering. The victories, wealth and enjoyment will be reaped by the traditional bourgeoisie alone.
Our position
If this analysis has made one thing clear, it is that we reject all of the candidates for the presidential elections on 28 July. Beyond their false promises, each and every one of them represents the interests of capital. Each and every one of them is ready to continue mutilating what remains of our rights and gains. Each and every one of them is in favour of the humiliation, misery and exploitation of the majority, so that the rich get richer and richer, and the poor get poorer and poorer.
Under no circumstances can we, the comrades of Lucha de Clases – the Venezuelan section of the Revolutionary Communist International – support any candidate that will continue austerity measures. We will not support the aspirations of the most reactionary sections of the ruling class to take power. We refuse to give in to electoral pressure, for which some have sold their souls, by giving support to one of the bosses' pro-imperialist candidates. Neither do we intend to lend ourselves to the lies, the deceit and the most pestilent corruption of those who today ask for our vote so they might continue trampling the main asset that Venezuela has: the men, women, youth, old people and children, whose future has been pawned by the liquidators of the Bolivarian Revolution.
Under no circumstances can we, the comrades of Lucha de Clases support any candidate that will continue austerity measures / Image: RCI
How can we revolutionaries respond to the electoral swindle promoted by the representatives of capital? Before and after 28 July, every effort must be made to politically reassemble and rearm the forces of the working class as soon as possible.
We must fight shoulder-to-shoulder with the working class, defending its interests and assisting it in building a revolutionary alternative to the crisis of capitalism.
We must fight for the regeneration of unions as instruments that defend the interests of the working class, promoting new class-fighters to leadership positions, with the support of the rank and file. We must promote the organisation of students around a class-based, revolutionary programme. We must push for the conquest of women’s and LGBT rights, fighting side by side with these sectors against offensives by conservatives and religious bigots. We must support and strengthen the struggle of rural workers for their right to land, against the large estates, landowners and hired assassins. And we must demand the election and renewal, without bureaucratic mismanagement, of the Communes and Communal Councils, promoting effective participation by the people in the solution of their problems.
To carry out this endeavour, it is necessary to build a new communist and revolutionary party, one capable of bringing together all the strength and militancy of the most conscious layers of the working class. The programme of this new party must build bridges connecting the concrete demands of the working people with the objective of carrying out the revolutionary transformation of society. Above all, it must be the catalyst that awakens the revolutionary potential of the working class, which must place itself at the head of all oppressed sectors in the course of carrying out the socialist reconstruction of society.
The Venezuelan section of the Revolutionary Communist International is working every day for the realisation of the objectives set out above. We invite everyone who agrees with our analysis to support us in the building of the organisation, which must be the embryo of the new Revolutionary Communist party that we need.
No support for the candidate of the nouveau riche! No support for the candidate of imperialism! No support for the other bosses' candidates! In the face of those who propose to kill us either by asphyxiation or decapitation, we revolutionary communists choose to fight, to organise, and to raise the forces of the working people!