The crisis of the French regime has the feel of a TV series. Yesterday’s episode was not lacking in a certain dramatic intensity.
[Originally published at marxiste.org]
As we wrote yesterday, the right and left wings of the New Popular Front (NFP) had been battling to choose a candidate for Prime Minister. Two hours before a long-prepared interview with Macron, the NFP leaders finally agreed to ask him to appoint Lucie Castets: an ‘independent’ (previously a member of the Socialist Party, which heads up the conservative wing of the NFP).
Macron refused even this ‘compromise’ candidate, provoking protests from the NFP leaders. All the elements of a first-season finale were there: a dramatic turn of events, the appearance of a new character, growing tension – and, above all, suspense. Season two can begin. It could turn out to be even more entertaining than the Olympic Games.
"It is false to say that the New Popular Front would have a majority, whatever happens," Macron declared yesterday evening. The main thing here is "whatever happens": the NFP, therefore, would not even have a relative majority?
For such a statement to cease to be a pure and simple denial, another relative majority – larger than that of the NFP – would have to be formed. However, assuming National Rally (RN) will not be part of it, this necessarily presupposes either the fracture of the NFP, which has just affirmed its unity behind Lucie Castets, or a coalition made up of all the Macronist and LR deputies, which is far from straightforward. In short, Macron told the NFP deputies yesterday, who constitute the biggest bloc in the Assembly: "to call a new government, I first demand that you divide yourselves." This is absolutely unprecedented.
Macron refused even the ‘compromise’ candidate, provoking protests from the NFP leaders / Image www.kremlin.ru, Wikimedia Commons
In the coming days and weeks, a few "left-wing" MPs could be tempted by Macron's call to split away, forming an alliance with his bloc. But as we explained yesterday, the leaders of the PS, the Greens and the Communist Party (PCF) have good reasons not to give in to the presidential siren song. On the one hand, they would be a minority within a coalition dominated by the right; on the other hand, this would immediately strengthen La France Insoumise, which would then be the only left-wing opposition.
As in any good TV series, it is difficult to predict what will happen next. But let's note that Macron must systematically "rule out" the possibility of an early presidential election. If it were really "ruled out", he should not have to keep repeating it. In fact, his resignation is one of the possible conclusions of season two.
So far, the political crisis has been taking place mainly in the electoral and parliamentary sphere. In the coming weeks and months, it could take the form of large-scale extra-parliamentary mobilisations. This is essential. The fact is that the NFP programme will not find an absolute majority in the National Assembly, which is numerically dominated by the right and the extreme right.
Therefore, as we wrote yesterday:
"Workers and youth can expect nothing good from the new National Assembly; they will only be able to count on their own strength. Only big social mobilisations, demonstrations and massive strikes will open up the prospect of wresting serious improvements in our living, working and studying conditions. The axis of the struggle is no longer on the parliamentary terrain, it is in the streets, in workplaces and in working-class neighbourhoods (...)
“In this context, workers and youth must not wait passively to find out with what superficial flavour of governance they will be served up to the bosses. Trade union activists, in particular, must put pressure on their leaderships to develop an offensive battle plan armed with a radical programme.”